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BCS on a Monday morning

Getting set up for a USDCHF entry a little early, but I go for it anyway! Realize this is on a simulation trading account, so I have no fear…

“Fire all of your guns at once and explode into space.” is a line from Steppenwolf’s song, “Born to be Wild.” I couldn’t help myself and I was in for my limit of 50 open trades on this account.

Of course, moments after I closed my last trade, the market slaps me on the way out. If you watch the video, you’ll see what I mean.

And, it’s always easy to see with 20/20 hindsight. This would have been round two, had I stayed to play.

 

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Early and Early No More!

After today’s sessions (of the BCS (Bankers Close Strategy), two rounds), I realized I’m still getting into the trades a bit early, although I did better today as you’ll see and hear in the videos I’ve shared. This realization leads me to believe that there is simply something not quite right about the overall timing of this strategy. Because if you’ve seen any of the previous sessions and the after-bankers-close sessions that I sometimes trade, you are likely to see what I’m seeing, that I’m getting out too early, too!

So, I’m penalized twice sometimes. Once by my early entries, which sometimes are taken out by my stops. And, again when I close my trades soon after the London close, only to watch as price continues to move in my direction. The penalty there being pips I did not get because I thought I was done.

Tomorrow, I’m going to shift my time frame to the right by 10-15 minutes and see how that affects my bottom line. If it is an improvement, then I’ll be re-writing the BCS again for my post in the Forums.

Wish me luck. I’ll see you soon.

BDT

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Video Links

Not wanting to put this off until it is perfect, here is a start:

Bankers Close Videos – These are from earlier sessions, last week, I think…

https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjM5MDQ0MF83MjYzMDIw

https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjM5MDY2NF83MjYzNDc2

Those links above will show you some early videos.

Here are two videos I made this morning:
https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjQxMzk5OV83MzE2NjUy – Fewer than 15 minutes session 1
https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjQxNDExNV83MzE2OTIx – Right at 30 minutes session 2

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Hard To Believe

After listening to so many chapters of this great book, I’ve found a very good reason to be happy with my trading today. Why am I proud of this result? Because in that third round, I did not trade. That is part of this strategy, if it doesn’t set up, don’t force it. When you do what’s right, be happy.

Bankers Close Strategy Basics
https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjQwNDQ5N183MjkyOTY3 – Round 1 – just getting ready. Explaining the rules and details of the strategy.
https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjQwNDc1Nl83MjkzNTQy – Round 2 – on CHF, too early and recovery post-close. This is 52 minutes of impatience and patience in the same session.
https://mousehelp.tinytake.com/sf/MjQwNDgzNV83MjkzNzI5 – Round 3 – No trade, flatline on PA, RSI, everything! If you only watch one of these videos, watch this one. Herein lies the best lesson of the day. The two images below depict the EUR and GBP vs USD and both show the price hugging the mid-band. Since the mid-band is the target price on BCS, there is no trade here!

The two images below show how wrong things can go if you get in too early. The last one shows where the price was after I was completely out of the trade.

Still sitting on the Fibonacci level support at 38.2%. Sometimes you just have to believe the fibs.

Friday often not a good trading day… It’s in the details of the BCS (Bankers Close Strategy).

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Bankers Close Timing and CHF

Today is February 19, 2018, Presidents Day in the US. The banks are closed. So, I was unwilling to commit to this strategy but found it to be valid for the USD/CHF pair in an earlier time frame (than that in the details of the document on AF.)

I’ve marked up this chart (long after the fact, of course) with salient points on time and set up indications along with entry and exit thoughts. Again, knowing I did not take a trade on this please realize this is all 20/20 hindsight. However, I’ll be watching this pair for the next several days to see if it offers a better opportunity than EUR/USD or if it is a good precursor to that trade setting up an hour later on EUR/USD.

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Bankers Close Two Rounds This Time

It’s a little late to be writing, but I said I would post this today.

This was a big news day and the two big announcements resulted in what I would call a net break-even. The first announcement drove prices on the EUR/USD down by 76.5 PIPs and the second big news drove the price back up by around 89 PIPs.
If you know how to trade those swings, feel free to share your knowledge with us in the comments. I could use the PIPage.

Thanks to Todd, we had a lesson in how to prepare for the setup of the Bankers Close strategy in the Daily Forex Fanatics session today. Thanks, Todd!

As noted in my last post about my first success with this, it is all in the timing. And, the timing starts right after DFF is over. More specifically, for me, it starts at around 8:15 a.m. Pacific Time – that’s 16:15 GMT.

In this post, I’ll show you my Orders History first. You’ll have to take my word for it, there were seven trades earlier in this list, but I’m just too tired to do the work it would take to produce one more image for this purpose.  Those trades were a net negative 7-8 PIPs. So, I was down for the day when I started scalping from the bottom up. As you’ll see, it got worse and I was down 40-50 PIPs before things started to go my way!

Click any image below for a larger (more readable) version.

This next image picks up where that one left off and shows you how things finished into round one of a two-round session of trading this strategy. In this image, look at trades from ID number 1113 to 1140, as that is the total range of trades taken in a span of about twenty minutes. I’m scalping a few PIPs all the way up as I’m hoping to see the price take out the last top (it does not take out the top, so I enter the trade when it starts coming down.)

Then, I reversed at the top for round one of this strategy. Trades 1131 through 1140 are the other side of the buying (and selling scalps) I had been doing up until then. Although I captured 80+ PIPs on the way down before I bailed out on my last couple of positions, at some point I was up over 100+ PIPs and let greed get the better of me, so I gave back about 20% before taking it all down.

If you noticed trades 1141 through 1145 in that list you might also notice the time stamp on those is just a few minutes later… A minor Apiary Pivot had printed at the top of the last run up, so that got my interest and I started setting up for another round. Now 45 PIPs in the green, I was willing to risk 40 PIPs on the possibility that I had been too early in round one. As you can see, that worked out pretty well for me. For what it’s worth, here is the last image I captured while in the first round.

Unfortunately, I don’t have images to show you for those last four trades, as I had put on my headphones and thought I was recording sound along with my screen to document the second round. Alas, the equipment was not quite right and I got the desktop image recording with no sound. One of these days, I’ll get it right and trade with strategy with live money.

Below is an image with those last four trades plotted on the chart. Enjoy!

 

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Bankers Close Success – Finally!

Here are the basics, as I understand them, of this strategy.

Bankers Close Basics

Four things you need:
1) Closes outside bands
2) RSI above 70 or below 30
3) Apiary Pivot Print
4) Strong move – SERIOUSLY! (I’ve sent messages to ask for clarification on this point.)

Lessons learned: Timing is critical. I’ve been early in the past and stopped out for large losses. Confidence in the pattern is helpful, as I bought on the way up with too much confidence and had little faith in a strategy that has burned me in the past, so my position size on the retrace down to mid-Bollinger-Band was 1/10th that of the upside. Meek BDT still wins here, though.

With this trade, I had only past experience and timing to augment the three out of four basics listed above. In other words, you may not always get the RSI suggested by the rules of this strategy. Past experience led me to believe the price would rise from the last minor pivot low and eventually eclipse the last minor pivot high. Again, clarity is needed here, as I cannot be sure the documentation of this strategy mentions major or minor pivots – time for a re-reading of that document… Click on any image below to expand it.

As you’ll see, I was buying up to the top, expecting the price to rise and loop around the upper pivot (Fibs are there as a kind of guideline, I was buying primarily between the 38.2 and 23.6 levels.)
Check the orders history image below to see all the prices (mostly) between those points. I’m not sure how I managed a couple of sell orders on the way up, but now it seems obvious (by position size – 0.10 on the way up and 0.01 coming down) that I had a lot more confidence in the uptrend than I did in the drop to the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands.
Note:
The title of this post and close examination of the name of the account I’m trading
– “Bankers Killed” – so named because I’ve lost on this strategy so often. Better now…

Here is a better look at the list of orders. When I’m better at this, I’ll plot them on the chart, like some of our instructors do. Until then, try to imagine what I was thinking from the bottom to the top and back down again! Next time I try this, I’m going to record my screen and a voice-over, so I can fully capture what I’m thinking and feeling through the entire process. Note those last two trades were open for 53 seconds and 73 seconds, respectively. The profit differential between those two and the rest of the trades illustrates the cost of a lack of confidence.
Fortune favors the bold!

You are welcome to send comments to me at briandreamtrader@gmail.com – All feedback, including sharp criticism, is welcome! Thanks in advance for your help.